Now that a system is leaving the Northeast on Halloween, the weather pattern is changing. That change will produce a pattern that favors fast-moving clipper-like systems for the first two weeks of November.

The cause of the pattern change is a building upper-level ridge in the West and into the Plains. It will be a rather stubborn feature for a while, though it will be challenged. There is an upper-level trough in the North Pacific that will continue to bombard the ridge during the first two weeks of November with storm systems. The result will be several systems that tend to move over the northern edge of the ridge -- through Canada or the northern United States that we typically call clippers. A new one looks to move through every couple of days.

Clipper systems generally move from Western Canada southeast into the Great Lakes before taking a turn northeast into Eastern Canada and they move through rather quickly. They typically produce strong winds both ahead of and behind the storm. In the winter, these bring a burst of warmth on the front end of the system, but a big drop in temperature behind them.

But with these systems originating from the Pacific Ocean and not northwestern Canada or the Arctic, they will not have much of a punch of cold air. In fact, models are keen to keep temperatures above normal in November even with these systems moving through.

Another consideration is precipitation. Clippers like to produce streaky precipitation. With limited moisture, small changes in where models track these systems could bring big differences in the amount, placement and type of precipitation.

Generally, these streaks are light rain. If they get cold enough air to produce snow, that could lead to moderate amounts. But with the lack of cold air expected with these systems, chances for snow are quite low. When these clippers aren't moving through, such as across the southern tier of the U.S., drier conditions are usually the experience.

Clipper systems are very often poorly predicted by models. Because they are usually compact, smaller systems, small errors can often lead to major misses in the precipitation and temperature for those in the path. Therefore, significant changes to timing, temperature and precipitation are expected for the first two weeks of November.

Not all systems that move through during the first two weeks will be clipper-like systems. It appears one of the disturbances shed from the North Pacific trough will be strong enough to cruise through the ridge and across the U.S. late next week and weekend. That system may produce more widespread precipitation and changing weather conditions across more of the country. But that western ridge will only be temporarily disturbed as it reforms behind the system later next week and continues toward mid-November, keeping the clipper pattern intact.

Models are more in agreement of this ridge moving eastward through the U.S. for the second half of November, which would suggest some potential for a stormier fall pattern for the middle of the country. But until then, warmer and drier weather will be more likely with somewhat minor disruptions, particularly across the north.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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