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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/15 11:03

   Soybeans Leading Grains at Midday

   Corn and soybeans score new highs for the move, wheat narrowly mixed.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 70. The 
interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 18 lower. 
Energies are mixed with crude up 0.25. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs 
leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 8.60. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs for 
the move with support from soybeans and weather. More open weather should 
return this week, but will take a bit to get everyone back up to speed. Ethanol 
margins remain under pressure with the firmer corn trade and weaker recent 
action in the energy complex with ethanol futures still holding the $1.31 area. 
Corn basis is expected to stay sideways with wet weather limiting weakness in 
some areas. The weekly export inspections were a bit disappointing at 996,643 
metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest falling behind 
normal, with steady conditions. On the December chart support is at the $3.67 
10-day with trade above the 100-day at midday at 3.73, and the 200-day next 
resistance at $3.88.


   Soybean trade is 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with damage concerns 
helping to boost trade with the recent highs being taken out this morning. Meal 
is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Soybean basis has 
found some footing with the delays, although it remains abnormally wide with 
more focus on quality losses with aggressive discounts seen along the river 
system. Crop losses from the weather will likely take awhile for trade to sort 
out which will likely trigger volatile trade. Crush margins remain strong. 
South America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the 
near term. Weekly crop progress will likely show harvest well behind average 
now. Weekly export inspections were stronger at 1.157 million metric tons. On 
the November chart, support is the 10-day at $8.63 with resistance the 100-day 
at 8.89. 


   Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade trying to build on the Friday 
gains, led by the winter wheats. The U.S. dollar has faded back below 95 with 
some light selling to start the week. World spring wheat harvest is nearing 
completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in 
North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the Plains. Australia 
remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in the drier areas. 
Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting and emergence near average. 
Weekly export inspections were inline with recent weeks at 450,980 metric tons. 
On the December Kansas City chart, we are just above at the 10-day and 20-day 
at 5.20 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.09, and resistance the upper 
Bollinger Band at $5.30.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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